On Dynamics of "New Wars": Clausewitzian Analysis of Factors Related to Dynamics of Armed Conflicts in Post-Communist Area

Armed conflict that occurred after the end of the Cold War in the territory of former Yugoslavia and Soviet Union belong to the so cold phenomenon of new wars. New wars are said to differ from the old ones in its aims, methods of warfare, and in ways how they are iv financed. In spite of these supposed changes in fundamental character of war, a conflict dynamics - defined by intensity, rapidity of escalation, and conflict duration - of armed conflicts in post-communist area corresponds with classic notion of war, as it was described by Carl von Clausewitz. According to the theory based on Clausewitz's work conflict course can be seen as a resultant of three forces - group hostility, ability to build up and maintain military organisation, and rationality of political leadership. Group hostility works as driving power toward very escalated and long-lasting armed conflict and political leadership that realises aim of the war and its consequences for political relations in the aftermath works as a counterforce to hostility and therefore attempt to maintain intensity of violence within limits drawn by political aims. Without quick build up of a military organisation there cannot be supposed a rapid conflict escalation at the beginning of an armed conflict. The resultant of all the three forces, which reach in..